Valve stated the hardware will release "Early 2026"
While Valve time is a thing, let's have fun and assume they will actually do that and they are talking about quarters, since they used that for the steam deck.
The chance calculation has been adjusted. The last recorded percentage before the change was 2.7% or a bit less. At the time of change, it is 0.98%.
Weekend/holiday independent percentage: idk either twin
Chance is calculated based on current UTC time. If it's the weekend or it's past the steam refresh time(18:00) chance is set to 0.001%